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Gavin Newsom Recall Update: Where California Governor Stands in Polls

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Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom would narrowly survive any recall election, according to recent polling.

Newsom faces such a vote after a campaign, ‘Recall Gavin 2020,’ gathered more than 2 million signatures.

If county officials verify 1,495,709 of those signatures by April 29, a recall will be triggered. A vote would then likely come in the fall, perhaps in November, The Associated Press reports. Voters would be asked if Newsom should be removed and then to cast a vote on who should replace him if so.

The governor said last week it appears likely there will be such a vote.

“Well, the reality is it looks like it’s going on the ballot, and so we’re ready to go,” he said at a press conference. “We will fight it. We will defeat it.”

According to surveys conducted among Californians, Newsom would narrowly beat the effort to oust him.

Polling from Probolsky Research conducted March 16 to 19 among 900 California voters showed more would vote against Newsom being removed than for this.

Of all those asked, 46.7 percent said they would vote no if casting a ballot today on Newsom being recalled from office. This compared to 40 percent who said they would vote yes.

Among likely recall voters in the poll, 52.5 percent said they would vote no on him being recalled and 34.6 percent yes.

The margin of error for the full sample size is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95 percent.

In Emerson College Polling for Nexstar Media Group conducted March 12 to 14, 42 percent of respondents said they would vote to keep Newsom in office, compared to 38 percent who would opt to recall him.

The question was posed to 1,045 registered voters in California. It has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Berkeley IGS poll conducted January 23 to 29 among 10,357 registered voters in California also showed more opting to keep Newsom than recall him. Just over a third, 36 percent, said they would vote to recall, and 45 percent said they would vote to keep Newsom. Its findings were subject to a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The University of California, Riverside asked 25 social science professors how they expected the recall effort would play out. Among them, 40 percent said there was no chance Newsom will be removed and 44 percent said 25 percent chance. None said it was certain to succeed.

Republican challengers have already emerged to Newsom should he face recall.

Politicoreported that Tom Steyer who ran in the primary to be the Democratic presidential nominee has been polling the California recall. Citing three people familiar with the survey, Politicosaid Steyer included himself among a list of potential contenders to succeed Newsom. Steyer declined to comment and a source told the outlet he would be “very surprised if he is looking at the recall ballot.” The Liberty Buzz has sought comment from Steyer.

The Liberty Buzz has contacted Newsom’s office and the Recall Gavin 2020 campaign for comment on polling related to the potential recall vote.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference with Bay Area AAPI leaders at the Chinese Culture Center of San Francisco on March 19, 2021 in San Francisco, California. He is facing the prospect of a recall vote which could see him ousted from his position.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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